Bitcoin Buy: WAITING For Real Support Levels Mid 13K Area.

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Bitcoin finds resistance at the low 16K, followed by selling activity. Not surprisingly, we’ve been very careful not to get caught up in the hype and low probability buy signals of the past few weeks. In fact, we’ve been talking about staying away from any new Bitcoin swing trades since the mid-15K area was tested weeks ago (see my previous articles here).

As of this moment, there is still no reason to delay. The closest significant support level remains between 13K and 14K. Our plan requires 3 things to develop before we can take any risk: first, we need to hit a predetermined level (14,250 to 13,600), second, we need price action to produce a clear setup (chart pattern, candle pattern, etc.), and Third, we need confirmation. Once we can measure the risk and determine a favorable probability, we are asked to share our idea and start a new swing trade. Many traders do not have the patience or emotional restraint to go through such a slow process. What about falling short? We are not short of Bitcoin, which has been our policy from the beginning (we are consistent as our results).

The broader trend remains bullish and it is reasonable to see a move to 20K in the coming months, at least from a technical perspective. That means that in such a context, the best opportunities will be to buy on weakness but in a structured way, not in a reactive or random way.

The timing markets are more than reading a chart (especially one polluted with many lines and oscillators). Probability is something you can’t see, something an oscillator won’t take into account, or something a professional trader will focus on (less action = fewer customers). Our job as a market timekeeper is to map probabilities to market conditions to better identify opportunities that are likely to develop in our favor. ALL markets are HIGHLY RANDOM, which means these opportunities will be rare.

If you are trying to capture broader market movements in Bitcoin (swing trades), and you are doing more than 1-2 trades per week, then you have outperformed the trade and your long-term results will surely reflect that. I get questions all the time: How many exchanges do you make for Bitcoin? in October we only had 2, which you can read about in my previous articles. 15 days after November we have had NONE because we continue to follow our well-defined swing trade strategy and EXPECT a high probability setup.

About the author

Nafees Saifi // entrepreneur, author, trainer, and stocks and FX trader. 
Nafees Saifi is a professional FX trader from, India. Nafees has extensive experience trading commodities, bonds, and equity futures in the Asian, European, and US markets. Nafees holds a Bachelor of Finance and Economics degree and is focused heavily on Investment Finance and Quantitative Analysis.

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