At TD Securities, economists discuss the EUR/USD, USD/CAD, and USD/JPY pairs’ futures.
The S&P 500’s primary support level is 3950.
“For some time, we have been leaning toward a tactical move lower in the EUR/USD. Despite the fact that the 200-DMA will provide significant support, we continue to consider 1.05 to be the primary reevaluation point for this bias. This point for USD/CAD is 1.37, but if stocks fail to hold key supports (we believe the key level will be 3950 in the S&P 500), this may push higher.
USD/JPY risks are currently higher; The next key resistance, 137 (200-DMA), roughly corresponds to the relative 1y1y OIS differential pit of the pair. Note that both broad USD variation and US/JP 1y1y OIS are solid drivers for USD/JPY, so a break of 1.05 in EUR/USD and a move higher in terminal rate expectations are likely requirements for failure to hold this resistance.