As Fed rate cut expectations rise, USD/CNH reaches 13-month lows below 7.0800.

As the US dollar falters and softer data supports the possibility of a Fed rate decrease in December, the USD/CNH hit a 13-month low of 7.0782.
More than 84% of a 25-basis-point Fed rate drop in December is priced in, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Since Tuesday, at least ten shipments of US soybeans worth over $300 million had been purchased by China.


In the Asian hours on Wednesday, USD/CNH reached a 13-month low of 7.0782, extending its losses for the fourth day in a row. The US dollar (USD) is under pressure, and the pair weakens as prospects of a December rate decrease by the Federal Reserve (Fed) rise due to weaker US economic statistics.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in more than 84% odds—up from 50% a week ago—that the Fed will lower its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting.

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US retail sales increased by 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September, slowing from the 0.6% gain in August, according to data provided by the US Census Bureau on Tuesday. This suggests that consumers are becoming more frugal with their spending. Retail Sales Control Group down 0.1% compared to the prior 0.6% growth and the anticipated 0.3% increase. Consumer confidence fell 6.8 points to 88.7 in November from 95.5 in October, according to the Conference Board, which also revealed a severe decline in household mood.

In September, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) held steady at 2.7% year over year, which was in line with August's data and expectations. This suggests that inflationary pressures have subsided. Core PPI decreased from 2.9% to 2.6%, falling short of 2.7% projections.

China's central bank reaffirmed its consistent strategy to controlling currency fluctuations in the face of evolving global financial conditions on Wednesday by setting a slightly higher daily Chinese Yuan fixing. The Yuan can move 2% in any direction in the onshore market thanks to the daily fixing, which serves as the midpoint around which it can trade.

Stronger fixing is sometimes seen as a sign of policy purpose, either to control excessive volatility or to direct the Yuan movement. The most recent shift highlights Beijing's commitment to maintaining stable market conditions as it keeps a tight grip on the exchange-rate system.

In agreements inked since Tuesday, China has bought at least ten cargoes of US soybeans, valued at about $300 million, according to two merchants with knowledge of the situation. The exceptionally high number is a continuation of China's recent spike in soybean purchases amid a thaw in US-China trade ties, and it occurs only one day after the two presidents spoke over the phone.