China's GDP grew 5.4% year over year and 1.6% quarter over quarter in Q24. The official target for 2024 full-year growth was 5.0%, which is marginally higher than our forecast of 4.9%. Ho Woei Chen, an economist with the UOB Group, points out that the industrial sector was the main driver of the stronger recovery.
4Q24 GDP growth exceeded forecasts.
"China's economy has remained stable thanks to its stimulus programs. The robust manufacturing output was probably a result of frontloading industrial production and exports prior to Trump's second term, but this is unlikely to last, and we anticipate some payback later this year."
"While the property market continued to stabilize due to stimulus measures, private consumption was more moderate and skewed toward consumption under the government's subsidy program. Until we learn more about Trump's intentions regarding possible tariffs and the magnitude of China's fiscal boost, we maintain our forecast for China's growth in 2025 at 4.3%.
"As the PBOC increased its efforts to support the local currency, the pressure on the CNY to depreciate may cause some delay in rate cuts. Given that PBOC skipped a move that was flagged for December, there is more space for an RRR cut in the near future.
4Q24 GDP growth exceeded forecasts.
"China's economy has remained stable thanks to its stimulus programs. The robust manufacturing output was probably a result of frontloading industrial production and exports prior to Trump's second term, but this is unlikely to last, and we anticipate some payback later this year."
"While the property market continued to stabilize due to stimulus measures, private consumption was more moderate and skewed toward consumption under the government's subsidy program. Until we learn more about Trump's intentions regarding possible tariffs and the magnitude of China's fiscal boost, we maintain our forecast for China's growth in 2025 at 4.3%.
"As the PBOC increased its efforts to support the local currency, the pressure on the CNY to depreciate may cause some delay in rate cuts. Given that PBOC skipped a move that was flagged for December, there is more space for an RRR cut in the near future.
