In the early European session on Thursday, the Indian Rupee gains strength.
The INR is hurt by its Asian rivals' weakness and rising oil costs, although interbank USD sales should help keep its losses to a minimum.
Later Thursday's highlights will be the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the US February PPI report.
On Thursday, the Indian Rupee (INR) is trading more strongly. The INR receives modest support from broad-based interbank sales of US dollars (USD) in the midst of a dismal global risk environment. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) possible foreign exchange intervention may restrict any severe depreciation of the Indian Rupee.
However, the Indian currency declines as a result of the weakness in Asian currencies. Furthermore, as India is the third-largest oil user in the world and higher crude oil prices typically have a negative effect on the value of the Indian rupee, a recovery in crude oil prices could put pressure on the local currency. The US February Producer Price Index (PPI) data and the weekly Initial Jobless Claim data will be watched by traders later Thursday.
Despite global challenges, the Indian Rupee bounces back.
February saw the lowest Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase in seven months, up 3.61% YoY. This number was less than the 4.0% predicted and the prior reading of 4.31%.
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to lower interest rates by an extra 50 basis points (bps) over the rest of 2025, according to consensus estimates.
Following a notable 0.5% gain in January, the US CPI grew 0.2% MoM in February, the Labor Statistics Agency reported on Wednesday. This number was lower than the anticipated 0.3%. During the same reported period, the core CPI—which does not include volatile food and energy categories—rose 0.2% MoM as opposed to 0.4% earlier.
The headline CPI inflation rate in the United States decreased from 3.0% in January to 2.8% in February on an annual basis, which is lower than the 2.9% estimate. Core CPI inflation dropped from 3.3% in January to 3.1% in February.
The Treasury Department said on Wednesday that the US budget deficit for the first five months of fiscal 2025 reached a record $1.15 trillion. The US deficit was little over $307 billion each month, 4.0% more than it was a year ago.
With roughly 70 basis points of interest rate reductions anticipated throughout 2025, traders are completely pricing in another quarter-point decrease in June.
The USD/INR trades in a triangle with symmetry.
On the day, the Indian Rupee trades more strongly. On the daily chart, the USD/INR pair has consolidated inside a symmetrical triangle. The price is still above the important 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midline, maintaining the pair's bullish outlook.
The upper limit of a symmetrical triangle, around 87.30, is where the first upside obstacle for USD/INR appears. If gains continue above this level, the rally may reach the February 28 high of 87.53 before reaching its highest point ever, 88.00.
However, the pair's critical support level is situated around 86.86, which is the triangle pattern's bottom limit and the low of March 6. The next levels of contention to keep an eye on farther south are 86.48, the low of February 21, and 86.14, the low of January 27.
The INR is hurt by its Asian rivals' weakness and rising oil costs, although interbank USD sales should help keep its losses to a minimum.
Later Thursday's highlights will be the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the US February PPI report.
On Thursday, the Indian Rupee (INR) is trading more strongly. The INR receives modest support from broad-based interbank sales of US dollars (USD) in the midst of a dismal global risk environment. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) possible foreign exchange intervention may restrict any severe depreciation of the Indian Rupee.
However, the Indian currency declines as a result of the weakness in Asian currencies. Furthermore, as India is the third-largest oil user in the world and higher crude oil prices typically have a negative effect on the value of the Indian rupee, a recovery in crude oil prices could put pressure on the local currency. The US February Producer Price Index (PPI) data and the weekly Initial Jobless Claim data will be watched by traders later Thursday.
Despite global challenges, the Indian Rupee bounces back.
February saw the lowest Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase in seven months, up 3.61% YoY. This number was less than the 4.0% predicted and the prior reading of 4.31%.
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to lower interest rates by an extra 50 basis points (bps) over the rest of 2025, according to consensus estimates.
Following a notable 0.5% gain in January, the US CPI grew 0.2% MoM in February, the Labor Statistics Agency reported on Wednesday. This number was lower than the anticipated 0.3%. During the same reported period, the core CPI—which does not include volatile food and energy categories—rose 0.2% MoM as opposed to 0.4% earlier.
The headline CPI inflation rate in the United States decreased from 3.0% in January to 2.8% in February on an annual basis, which is lower than the 2.9% estimate. Core CPI inflation dropped from 3.3% in January to 3.1% in February.
The Treasury Department said on Wednesday that the US budget deficit for the first five months of fiscal 2025 reached a record $1.15 trillion. The US deficit was little over $307 billion each month, 4.0% more than it was a year ago.
With roughly 70 basis points of interest rate reductions anticipated throughout 2025, traders are completely pricing in another quarter-point decrease in June.
The USD/INR trades in a triangle with symmetry.
On the day, the Indian Rupee trades more strongly. On the daily chart, the USD/INR pair has consolidated inside a symmetrical triangle. The price is still above the important 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midline, maintaining the pair's bullish outlook.
The upper limit of a symmetrical triangle, around 87.30, is where the first upside obstacle for USD/INR appears. If gains continue above this level, the rally may reach the February 28 high of 87.53 before reaching its highest point ever, 88.00.
However, the pair's critical support level is situated around 86.86, which is the triangle pattern's bottom limit and the low of March 6. The next levels of contention to keep an eye on farther south are 86.48, the low of February 21, and 86.14, the low of January 27.
