The UK economists at Societe Generale point to the political unpredictability surrounding Andy Burnham's possible Labour leadership challenge and its policy ramifications, but they do not anticipate significant change. Regarding monetary policy, they predict the BoE will keep rates on hold despite Megan Greene's anticipated vote in favor of a June rate hike. Before growth slows later in 2026, they predict a 0.1% monthly increase in GDP in April.
Despite hawkish voices, BoE is set to hold
"Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham indicated last week in the UK that if Starmer wins the Makerfield by-election, he would try to challenge him in a leadership race."
According to one survey, Burnham would receive 49% of the vote in the June 18 Makerfield by-election, compared to Reform's 39%.
"Burnham also reaffirmed that if he were elected leader, he would not call a sudden general election."
"MPC member Megan Greene stated that she will probably vote for a rate hike at the June meeting, joining Pill, who voted for a hike in April, in both an FT piece and a speech this week."
"But we anticipate that the BoE will keep rates on hold in June and that these members will continue to be in the minority."
Despite hawkish voices, BoE is set to hold
"Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham indicated last week in the UK that if Starmer wins the Makerfield by-election, he would try to challenge him in a leadership race."
According to one survey, Burnham would receive 49% of the vote in the June 18 Makerfield by-election, compared to Reform's 39%.
"Burnham also reaffirmed that if he were elected leader, he would not call a sudden general election."
"MPC member Megan Greene stated that she will probably vote for a rate hike at the June meeting, joining Pill, who voted for a hike in April, in both an FT piece and a speech this week."
"But we anticipate that the BoE will keep rates on hold in June and that these members will continue to be in the minority."
