According to Christopher Wong of OCBC, gold has increased by roughly 5% as the US-Iran de-escalation lessened the shocks to oil-led inflation and interest rates. He warns that additional increases will depend on softer oil, lower rates, and proof that Fed hawkish repricing has peaked, and that upward momentum may stall into the FOMC. Support is at 4,200 and 4,024, while key resistance is between 4,394 and 4,580.
Signals of macroeasing are key to upside.
"Gold. A possible turn? Gold recovered as part of the oil-led inflation and rate shock was mitigated by the US-Iran de-escalation narrative.
"With FOMC coming up and markets shifting focus from headlines to details on US-Iran agreement, the 5% rebound since Wed may likely turn less even from here."
"A more sustained improvement in the external environment is required for gold to regain significant upside momentum, and this would include weaker oil prices, rates to relax further, and clearer signs that Fed hawkish repricing has peaked."
"The latter will be a definite lift for gold prices — watch FOMC on Thu for signs."
"To relieve negative pressure, a durable recovery above resistance at 4394 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 4450 (200 DMA), and 4580 (50 DMA) is required. Rallies could still be remedial otherwise. Support at the latest low of 4200 and 4024.
Signals of macroeasing are key to upside.
"Gold. A possible turn? Gold recovered as part of the oil-led inflation and rate shock was mitigated by the US-Iran de-escalation narrative.
"With FOMC coming up and markets shifting focus from headlines to details on US-Iran agreement, the 5% rebound since Wed may likely turn less even from here."
"A more sustained improvement in the external environment is required for gold to regain significant upside momentum, and this would include weaker oil prices, rates to relax further, and clearer signs that Fed hawkish repricing has peaked."
"The latter will be a definite lift for gold prices — watch FOMC on Thu for signs."
"To relieve negative pressure, a durable recovery above resistance at 4394 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 4450 (200 DMA), and 4580 (50 DMA) is required. Rallies could still be remedial otherwise. Support at the latest low of 4200 and 4024.
